COVID19 - India Analysis & Forecast
COVID19 - India Analysis & Forecast
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Summary:
Global
- Countries or economies which open with a delay (smart/data driven) might bounce back fast
- Economies which open sooner might boom for a while but will face the wrath of second wave of COVID19
- Second wave can adversely affect the economy as well as the population/skillsets
- Possibly might end up in L-shaped economic recovery Recession Shapes
India
- Based on the predictions of logistic and parametric curve fitting models India might reach the plateau somewhere between end of June to mid July
- These predictions are based on data collected on data and can change based on government policies and actions
- Strict social distancing will help lower the transmission and help recover the economy in a healthy manner
Few possible developments during/post COVID19
- Health monitoring devices for people of all economic background
- Remote/Online education for rural population
- Staggered operation of work place/manufacturing sector
- 4 days of work with fixed group may be extra work hours with pay and then 10-14 days of quarantine
- All this with less workforce at any given point
- Since the incubation period of COVID19 virus is 4-5 days after which it enters transmission/infectious phase
- Tools/creative ways to follow strict social distancing in public places (Restaurants, Markets, Malls, Museums etc.)
- Door delivery of essentials - more local players
Add more possible post-COVID changes in comments section
Sectors with a possible uptick:-
ReplyDeleteDigital & Internet Economy: Online based products & services companies will find new takers
Online Education along with firms involved with online-skill development
Online groceries
There will be a sudden spike in the demand for Content, with digital content being in demand.
FMCG & Retail will benefit. With continued fear, food-based retail chains, and companies catering to low-ticket consumption demand will rise.
Speciality Chemicals: Firms dealing in Chemicals will see a jump due to increased demand for disinfectants, drugs and medicines.
Pharma: Pharmaceutical firms are set to see growth in the near term.
Agreed Nagma
DeleteWith the reduced workforce we for see in the near future, will automation eat out on few of the task which is done manually, And as this happens we will see a surge in unemployment specially in the skilled labor division. Upgrading them to with new skill set and pushing them in to contribute towards economy will be a major challenge.
ReplyDeleteI agree above comment with increase in digital economy. One prime example we can take is from the Automobile industry which is turning towards digital platforms to keep their sales urn churning. This is a new experience for the customer where in one purchases a vehicle without any primary interactions (look, touch or feel). That will change the supply chain and logistic of the industry entirely. They wont be present at various locations as today. Thus redirecting their sales from a single centralized unit using a digital platform compared to a distributed sales network they have today.
In terms of job opportunities the digital space has a tremendous potential for the near future.
Adversely affected Sectors:-
ReplyDeleteApparel & Textile will get hit adversely due to disruption in labour supply, raw material unavailability, working capital constraints and restricted demand due to limited movement of people and purchasing ability.
Auto sector will continue to face challenges on account of lack of demand, global recession and falling income levels.
Aviation & Tourism is one sector which has the highest probability of going under without direct government intervention. In the next 12 months, it’s highly unlikely people will travel for leisure apart from very essential travel.
Shipping and Non-Food Retail – Non food retail chains and global shipping businesses will find this period very challenging.
Building & Construction businesses are generally leveraged and hence will face the dual challenges of high-interest payments and lack of sales.